In the August 2016 edition of Offshore Magazine, one of the principals of a large project management consulting company advised that you should be watching graphs for inflection points to help alert you that a critical decision is required on your project.

Let’s do as he suggests and see what we can glean from the graph below.

We’re looking for an inflection point in the data to alert us that a decision needs to be made. Other than seeing that costs have been trending up more steeply lately, what exactly needs to be decided here? Should we be worried after seeing this graph?

Now look at the second graph below.

You have the same blue curve from the first graph, but this time you’re comparing it to your original plan, or Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB). As you compare and contrast the actual and planned data, you start to get a much clearer picture of what’s going on. The curves tell us that the project has been behind schedule. The cost spike might mean we’re in the deliberate process of catching up.

If you’re just using inflection points to guide your decision making, you’ll likely be hampered and your project will be at risk.

What you should do: plan your projects well enough to build a baseline that you can track future performance against.

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